Drama 2.0 Is Dramadamus: Looking Back at My Predictions for 2008

Late last year, I predicted what wouldn’t happen in 2008. Now that we’re in the final stretch of the year and it will soon be time for me to predict what won’t happen in 2009, I figured it was worth going back and evaluating just how accurate my 2008 predictions were.

Summary: I hit the fucking bull’s eye harder than Gary Busey hits the bottle.

Prediction #1: The Majority of Web 2.0 Startups Won’t Develop Scalable, Long-Term Business Models

Verdict: accurate.

The questions about the financial viability of Web 2.0 startups only increased this year. None of the hottest Web 2.0 properties (Facebook, Digg, Twitter, etc.) demonstrated that Web 2.0’s problems with monetization and self-sufficiency have been addressed. Instead, talk of just how fucked they are became increasingly prevalant and most went back to the dairy farms on Sand Hill Road for more milk from the great VC teat.

Prediction #2: Most of the Hottest Web 2.0 Startups Won’t Get Acquired for Big Bucks

Verdict: accurate.

While there were some notable acquisitions, namely AOL’s $850 million acquisition of Bebo, the vast majority of the hot Web 2.0 startups that have been the subject of fierce acquisition rumors were not acquired – Microsoft didn’t come in and scoop up Facebook, Google didn’t buy Digg, etc.

Once again, the most prominent Web 2.0 startups continued to do what they do best: raise money from foolish VCs, often at valuations that will make acquisitions even more unlikely.

Prediction #3: The U.S. Economy Won’t Help Startups

Verdict: accurate.

I stated “I’m not bullish on the United States economy” and advised that “keeping an eye on the macroeconomic landscape should be a priority for startups in 2008.” How right I was.

The global economic meltdown has created some tough challenges for today’s breed of consumer Internet startups. Many have been forced to lay off staff and VCs have rediscovered their pimp hands, informing their portfolio companies that they’d better start hitting the track and bringing that money back to daddy if they still want that protection from the real world in the future.

Prediction #4: There Won’t Be Much Innovation

Verdict: accurate.

While I’m sure some would disagree with me, I’d argue that 2008 wasn’t a year of heavy innovation in the startup space. By in large, the clones kept on coming (one need only look at TechCrunch50) and while there were a few interesting startups launched, the “next big thing” wasn’t one of them.

Prediction #5: There Won’t Be Many New Notable Faces

Verdict: accurate.

I predicted that the “same familiar personalities” – individuals like Mark Zuckerberg, Kevin Rose, Jason Calacanis – would continue to serve “as the poster children of Bubble 2.0″ and one only need have been vaguely exposed to the “startup scene” to recognize that that has indeed been the case. 2008: same (ugly) faces, same bullshit, different year.

Prediction #6: Silicon Valley Won’t Take Over Hollywood

Verdict: accurate.

Not only has Silicon Valley not taken over Hollywood, Hollywood has made significant inroads on the Internet in 2008. Hulu has made the skeptics eat their words, studios and networks have adjusted their thinking and just as I predicted, VCs increasingly funded new media startups led by Hollywood-types (even if just to get invited to better parties).

Prediction #7: Entrepreneurs and Investors Won’t Be Discouraged by Any of the Above

Verdict: accurate.

While it didn’t take long for the VCs to panic like bitches when the economic crisis became too obvious for even the deaf, dumb and blind to ignore, there’s still far too much euphoria.

Conclusion

7 for 7.

Pretty soon I’ll be consulting my Cristal bottle and telling you what to expect in 2009.